Freitag, 11. November 2011

The miracle of Rome

In the last three days something miracolous has happen in Rome: Italian politics has followed a path of reasonableness and appropriatness. The behaviour of the main political actors has become increasingly rational and smart. Sure: Berlusconi went into parliament Tuesday with fully wrong expectations, that his majority would still be there. But his next steps, to go to the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, and to offer him his resignation was exactly that, what he had to do in democratic and constitutional terms.
Frankly speaking: I didn't expected such an orderly procedure, because of my doubts, that Berlusconi suffered increasingly the "Emperor Nero Syndrom", that means: a lost sense for reality. Well, I was wrong, and I'm more than happy about this misjudgement.
I think however, that such a reasonable handling of the crises was only possible for two reasons:
1. The impeccable political management of the real hero in today's Italy, President Napolitano. With the perfect mix of pressure, moral suasion and concessions he convinced Berlusconi to do the right thing and to free Italy from his legacy
2. The psycological shock for Berlusconi, when he sat on the government-bench in parliament seeing that even his eldest allies were leaving him alone. It can be compared only to the surprise of Julius Caesar, when he asked to his murder Brutus at 15 March of 44 BC, "tu quoque fili?". Berlusconi had been one of most optimistic men on earth. He was used to win, in politics as well as in business and in his private life. Don't forget, that he created with creativity, also ability, a bit of luck and a lots of corruption out of nothing  one of the most precious media-conglomerate in Europe. For many years Berlusconi was not only the most powerful but also the wealthiest man of the country. He had never expected such an end.
So what's next: After the latest developments I do expect, that this weekend the two chambers of the parliament will have passed the Stability Law, which is more or less the transcript into law of Berlusconis letter to Brussels with a series of commitments, like the increase of the pension age and the liberalization of certain professions. The law is not bad, but it has substantially only the function, to be the very last action of this government. The approval is not in doubt and suddenly after Berkusconi will go to the President to resign officially from the post of Prime Minister. After that, Napolitano will meet with Mario Monti and mandate him to form a new government of National Unity.
 I will explain in my next Blog post, that I will post in the next couple of hours, why Mario Monti will succeed in  forming a very good governement, how he will assure a very solid majority on the parliament and what will be the next steps. With other words: how Monti will save Italy. Stay tuned!

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